06BANGKOK1248 THAI POLITICAL PARTIES DIG IN AND BRACE FOR THE WEEKEND
“54911″,”3/2/2006 0:06″,”06BANGKOK1248″,
“Embassy Bangkok”,”CONFIDENTIAL”,”",
“This record is a partial extract of the original cable.
The full text of the original cable is not available.
“,”C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001248
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TH, Protest/Demonstration, Thai Prime Minister
SUBJECT: THAI POLITICAL PARTIES DIG IN AND BRACE FOR THE
WEEKEND
Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (B,D)
1. (C) Summary. Both sides dug in deeper on March 1.
Thaksin insisted that he will not resign, snap elections will
be held on April 2, and he will hold his own rally this
Friday at Sanam Luang to kickoff his election bid.
Opposition party leaders did not waiver (publicly) from their
threat to boycott the election if the PM does not resign by
Sunday–the day of the next People\’s Alliance for Democracy
(PAD) rally. Preparations for the April 2 vote are under
way; March 3 will be the last day that the opposition can
reverse its boycott and register. Absent real news, the
local press spun yesterday\’s lunch between the PM and top
military leaders–designed to highlight military support for
him–into a series of speculative stories, prompting the
military\’s Supreme Commander to reaffirm publicly the
military\’s neutrality. As fortune would have it, the
Ambassador is hosting dinner this evening for Thai Army
Commander GEN Sonthi; ranking members of Sonthi\’s staff and
members of the Country Team will also be present. Meanwhile,
preparations for the election continue, but that is only
one–albeit important–piece of the political drama that is
playing out daily. End Summary.
RETURN TO DEFIANT FORM
———————-
2. (SBU) The embattled Prime Minister returned to form late
on February 28, dismissing calls for his resignation and
instead announcing that he and his supporters will hold their
own rally at Sanam Luang on March 3, only two days before the
opposition is scheduled to hold their own gathering at the
same location. Thaksin dropped the conciliatory tone he had
adopted earlier in the day when he had suggested delaying the
election, telling reporters that the opposition should
\”forget about making me resign…I\’ll speak my mind on March
3…I\’ll tell all.\” Thaksin dismissed further negotiations
with the opposition parties, saying \”I have tried my best but
they would not cooperate.\”
3. (SBU) The usually fractious opposition remained united
into March 1. Despite rumors that Thaksin and his Thai Rak
Thai party had offered significant enticements to Chat Thai
leader Banharn Silapa-Archa (whose propensity for cash
politics lent him the name \”Walking ATM\” in the 1990s),
Banharn and the leaders of the Democrat and Mahachon parties
reiterated their intent to boycott the election unless
Thaksin resigns by March 5.
PREPARATIONS FOR THE ELECTION ON TRACK
————————————–
4. (SBU) Following the opposition\’s insistence on a boycott,
the Election Commission began its efforts to set up the April
2 vote. Registration for the 100 party-list seats is open
March 2-3, with registration for the 400 constituency seats
open from March 4-8. A party must register for the
party-list seat vote in order to run for a constituency seat,
however, making Friday, March 3 the effective drop-dead date
for the opposition to reverse its stance and join in the
election–if it is held April 2.
PRESS STIRS THE RUMOR POT
————————-
5. (C) In a bid to dispel rumors of fading military support
for his leadership, Thaksin lunched with top military
commanders February 28. The plan backfired. Several local
papers reported March 1 that Army Commander General Sonthi
Boonyaratklin had warned the PM that he should resign for the
good of the country. Supreme Commander Gen. Ruengroj
Mahasaranond attempted to set the record straight later on
March 1, telling reporters that \”There will be no (military
involvement in a change of government)…the situation is
still going well.\” According to Embassy contacts, the author
of the initial, detailed (unattributable) article on the
story probably was the wife of a senior military official who
has written articles critical of Thaksin in the past.
6. (C) Reporters also ushered in a new round of speculation
that the PM would resign, citing unconfirmed reports that
Thaksin had asked for a meeting with Privy Councillor
Chairman Prem Tinsulanonda also today. A Thai Rak Thai
spokesman quickly denied this rumor, followed by the PM
himself. \”I will be…prime minister until the election is
done and a new government formed.\”
COMMENT
——-
7. (C) As things stand now, the historic ground at Sanam
Luang will witness dueling political rallies this coming
weekend. Both sides can be expected to mobilize large
numbers. We\’re keeping a close eye on March 3–the deadline
for the opposition parties to register in time for the April
2 election.
BOYCE
“
