06BANGKOK1918 THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE: MARCH 30
“58703″,”3/30/2006 10:13″,”06BANGKOK1918″,
“Embassy Bangkok”,”CONFIDENTIAL”,”06BANGKOK1888″,
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7573
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY”,
“C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 001918
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE: MARCH 30
REF: A. BANGKOK 1888
B. BANGKOK 1844
C. BANGKOK 1692
Classified By: Charge d\’Affaires Alex A. Arvizu for reason 1.4 (b) (d)
1. (C) Summary. Over 150,000 anti-Thaksin protesters
demonstrated peacefully last night in the heart of Bangkok\’s
upscale shopping district. This morning, the protesters
marched on the offices of the Election Commission where about
one thousand still remain this afternoon. PAD announced that
the demonstration would end this evening and that the next
large-scale demonstration will not be called until April 7.
However, a group of protesters remains camped in front of the
Election Commission offices demanding the resignation of the
Commissioners. As election day draws closer, the media is
reporting pessimistic leaks coming from TRT officials worried
about the party\’s ability to succeed in many of the
single-candidate races. End Summary.
BEYOND THE VALLEY OF THE MALLS
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2. (U) Over 150,000 PAD-led protesters descended on Bangkok\’s
upscale shopping district yesterday evening. The event was
boisterous but peaceful, and the much feared traffic chaos
never materialized – or a least went unnoticed given the
normal state of traffic in Bangkok. This looked to us like
the biggest showing for an anti-Thaksin rally yet.
Protesters packed the four-lane street, the median, and the
broad sidewalks to listen to the usual fare of anti-Thaksin
rhetoric.
3. (C) Sensing that the mall closures and potential traffic
snarls caused by the protest\’s new venue were weakening their
support among Bangkok\’s shopping classes, the PAD announced
an early end to the demonstration in front of Siam Paragon
mall. At about 10:00am on Thursday, the remaining
demonstrators (approximately 5,000) marched from the shopping
district to the Election Commission (EC) to protest the
Commission\’s failure to take action against Thaksin for
allegations that he made illegal payments to entice
candidates from smaller parties to run it the April 2
election. Roads and shops that had closed during the protest
began reopening this afternoon following the PAD\’s departure.
4. (C) Some PAD leaders announced that the demonstrations
would end today and would not resume until April 7 to offer
protesters the chance to go to the polls (to check the \’no
vote\’ box) and take a break from the sweltering streets.
However, Chamlong Srimuang – leader of the Dharma Army -
hinted that his followers may continue their demonstration at
the EC offices. By late afternoon, a group of about a
thousand protesters remained in front of the EC offices.
Sources in the EC inform us that the demonstrators have set
up tents, blocked all of the exits from the building, and are
demanding the resignation of the Election Commissioners.
They expect the number of demonstrators to grow as people
begin to leave work for the evening.
TRYING IS THE FIRST STEP TOWARD FAILURE
—————————————
5. (C) Signs of pessimism continue to leak out of TRT
rank-and-file. The Bangkok Post today cited an unnamed TRT
official voicing concern that as many as 100 of the TRT
candidates running unopposed might fail to secure the 20
percent of the electorate needed to win in their districts.
The source claimed that this estimate was based on results of
an internal TRT survey and was confirmed with a follow-up
survey. This figure is much gloomier than previous estimates
with regard to the number of seats at risk. Naturally, TRT
officially denied that any such internal survey was taken.
6. (C) COMMENT: Most assessments predict that 20 to 50 seats
may remain vacant due to unopposed candidates failing to
garner the votes of at least 20 percent of the electorate in
their constituencies on April 2. The leak from TRT about as
many as 100 seats going unfilled suggest growing frustration
among TRT rank-and-file with the party\’s leadership (Reftels
A, B, and C). For every note of pessimism from within TRT,
however, there are matching predictions of resounding victory
on April 2 from Thaksin stalwarts. Even at this late stage,
both sides seem convinced they have the upper hand. End
Comment.
ARVIZU
“
