thaicables – It's Your Right to know the Truth!

“70272″,”7/5/2006 11:04″,”06BANGKOK3963″,

 

“Embassy Bangkok”,”CONFIDENTIAL”,”",”VZCZCXRO9124

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O 051104Z JUL 06

FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9920

INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS

RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC

RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

RHFJSCC/COMMARFORPAC”,

“C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 003963

 

SIPDIS

 

SIPDIS

 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/04/2016

TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TH

SUBJECT: THAKSIN SAYS IT AGAIN, \”I\’LL TAKE A BREAK\”

 

REF: A. BANGKOK 03916 (WHAT\’S THAKSIN UP TO?)

 

B. BANGKOK 3349 (NOODLES WITH THAKSIN)

 

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. reason 1.4 (b) (d)

 

1. (C) SUMMARY: PM Thaksin told a visiting American

academic that he would not return as prime minister after the

new elections, but he planned to lead his party to victory,

and remain an MP and party leader for several more years. He

continued his attacks on the \’elite\’ that were trying to

unseat him, and particularly Privy Council President General

Prem Tinsulanonda. Although Thaksin keeps telling foreign

interlocutors that he will step back after the new Parliament

is formed, his combative rhetoric leads many Thai to presume

he is trying to cling to his position, exacerbating already

high levels of political tension. END SUMMARY

 

2. (C) PM Thaksin met with XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

(strongly protect) on July 4, and covered familiar themes.

XXXXXX told the Ambassador that Thaksin was clearly under

enormous pressure, but did not give any indication of being

under the influence of tranquilizers (ref A). He continued

his attack on Privy Council President Gen. Prem Tinsulanonda,

saying that Prem thought that a Privy Councillor was higher

than a Prime Minister and that the political \’elite\’ of the

country think Thaksin is \’a peasant.\’ He claimed that many

of his opponents are \’living off land given them by the

palace\’ and said that the courts were being used in an

anti-democratic fashion. Renewing his personal assault on

Prem, he referred to the \”(expletive deleted) democracy from

the gay opposition.\” (Note: a slur on Prem\’s sexual

orientation.) He hinted darkly at the threat of a coup or

assassination attempt, and said that he had decided not to go

to Germany for the World Cup final due to the uncertain

political situation.

 

3. (C) Thaksin turned from defiant to thoughtful when

asked: isn\’t it time to cut a deal? He appeared to have no

illusions about the possibility of returning as prime

minister. He said, as he has told us before (ref B), that he

would lead his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) to victory in the

elections, then step aside; another TRT MP would become prime

minister. He would remain party leader and an MP for several

years, and then would retire from politics to enjoy his

fortune. He envisioned a grand national coalition after the

elections, in which he would work behind the scenes. If the

Constitutional Court dissolved TRT and the Democrat party, he

declared that he would delay the elections to allow the

parties to re-form. He predicted that everything would be

resolved within 45 days. Thaksin suggested that there is a

30 year cycle in Thai politics: 1946, 1976, and now 2006,

were pivotal years of significant change.

 

4. (C) COMMENT: Thaksin\’s combative stance has led many Thai

to believe he will try to cling to power and seek to return

as PM after the election. We think that Thaksin himself

isn\’t sure what he will do, but his story to foreign

interlocutors is pretty consistent. He seems to recognize

that, barring some radical change in the political climate,

he will need to step back from the leadership for a while, at

least. His refusal to state this now, however, is

exacerbating the already high levels of tension. End comment.

BOYCE

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