09BANGKOK2902 REDS AND YELLOWS SET TO CONGREGATE (SEPARATELY) THIS WEEKEND
“234558″,”11/13/2009 11:06″,”09BANGKOK2902″,
“Embassy Bangkok”,”CONFIDENTIAL”,
“09BANGKOK2405|09BANGKOK2746|09BANGKOK2855|
09BANGKOK2875|09BANGKOK2887″,
“VZCZCXRO7091
PP RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #2902/01 3171106
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131106Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8939
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 2101
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 7691
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 5970
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 0171
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 7287
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY”,”C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002902
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2019
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: REDS AND YELLOWS SET TO CONGREGATE
(SEPARATELY) THIS WEEKEND
REF: A. BANGKOK 2887 (THAKSIN EXTRADTION REJECTED)
B. BANGKOK 2855 (COLOR ME GREEN)
C. BANGKOK 2875 (THAKSIN PUTS HIS FOOT IN HIS MOUTH)
D. BANGKOK 2746 (THAKSIN MOVES PROMISE TURBULENT
NOVEMBER)
E. BANGKOK 2405 (BRAWL NEAR BORDER)
BANGKOK 00002902 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: POL Counselor George Kent, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D)
1. (U) SUMMARY: The upcoming weekend will see red and yellow
political rallies, though on different days and different
parts of the country. On Saturday, November 14, the United
Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), aka
\”red-shirts,\” will hold a fundraising concert in Khao Yai
National Park, two hours outside of Bangkok. On Sunday,
November 15 the yellow-shirted People\’s Alliance for
Democracy (PAD) plans to hold a demonstration in downtown
Bangkok protesting recent moves by fugitive former Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (REFS A and C). The rally will
be PAD\’s first major public event since its Bangkok airport
sieges ended December 2, 2008; over 10,000 \”yellow-shirt\”
supporters are expected to attend. The PAD shifted the date
of its rally from Saturday to Sunday so that it would not run
concurrently with the red-shirt gathering; the PAD also
shifted locations in Bangkok because the military is running
a practice session for the December 2 King\’s birthday parade.
The RTG announced that it would not invoke the Internal
Security Act (ISA) for either gathering; all indications are
that both rallies will be peaceful affairs.
2. (C) COMMENT: This weekend,s twin red and yellow events
both seem poised to unfold without incident, which is welcome
news after a turbulent week; we have used meetings with
national red and yellow leaders in the past two weeks to
underscore the need to stick to peaceful measures as they
express their political views. With the diplomatic spat with
Cambodia over fugitive former PM Thaksin\’s visit dominating
headlines and PM Abhisit in Singapore for the APEC and
US-ASEAN Leaders\’ Meetings, the rallies have not attracted as
much attention as they otherwise might have. End Summary and
Comment
REDS HEAD TO THE HILLS, FOR ONE DAY, EYE ON LATE NOV.
———————————— —————-
3. (C) The UDD have directed supporters to converge on Khao
Yai National Park on November 14. Located two hours from
Bangkok in Nakhon Ratchasima Province, Khao Yai is the
gateway to Thaksin\’s traditional stronghold in the northeast.
Red-shirt leader Vira Musikapong told us the gathering would
be a concert and fund-raiser with an eye on bringing in
funding for the next big UDD protest (note: in early November
call-ins to red rallies, Thaksin urged supporters to hold
more sustained rallies in greater numbers. See ref D).
4. (C) When Vira suggested to us that next full fledged
red-shirt rally was likely to begin November 28 or 29 and
span three-five days, we asked how such a prolonged rally
would affect the King\’s birthday celebration, which begins
December 2 with the annual parade in which the military
renews its oath of allegiance to King Bhumibol, in the same
public space that red-shirts usually use for Bangkok rallies.
Vira conceded the UDD was aware of the potential conflict,
impishly acknowledged some red-shirts would relish the
opportunity to \”bash\” the military, but said leaders would
hold a meeting on November 20 to determine the best strategy
to reconcile UDD plans with the King,s birthday. We urged
Vira to ensure that the red-shirts stick to peaceful means to
express their opposition to the government and avoid the
escalation of street action which culminated in the red riots
of April in Pattaya and Bangkok.
PAD TO GATHER FOR FIRST TIME IN ALMOST A YEAR
———————————————
5. (C) The PAD on November 10 announced it would gather
supporters on Sunday, November 15 for the group\’s first
national rally since December 2008; the national PAD
leadership did not sanction the Preah Vihear border adventure
BANGKOK 00002902 002.2 OF 002
on September 19 (REF A). PAD coordinator and Secretary
General of the New Politics Party Suriyasai Katasila publicly
stated the purpose of the rally to be held at Sanam Luang
would be to protest Thaksin and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun
Sen (REFS B, C). The Manager newspaper quoted Suriyasai
saying that 100,000 people would attend the gathering;
privately, however, he told us November 11 that he expected
between 30,000 and 50,000 people would show up. (note: the
police are predicting 10,000).
6. (C) The PAD movement is in transition to forming a new
political party to promote its core ideas within the formal
parliamentary system, as Suriyasai detailed to us November 4
(ref B). At the time, Suriyasai delineated the focus of the
two vehicles in this way: the PAD would retain a focus on
countering Thaksin\’s influence, while the New Politics Party
would focus on reforming the political system and increasing
transparency from within (note: there is currently complete
overlap between the leadership of the PAD and the NPP).
ISA: DOUBLE STANDARDS, OR DIFFERING INTENT?
——————————————-
7. (U) Deputy Prime Minister for security Suthep Thuagsuban
on November 12 announced that the ISA would not be invoked
for the PAD rally, which is not directed against the Thai
government but against Thaksin and Hun Sen. Likewise there
were no indications that the government planned to have
security forces in any state of visible readiness for the PAD
demonstration. Red-shirt netizens lit up the Internet in
both Thai and English after hearing the news, accusing the
RTG of employing a double-standard, given the seemingly
automatic imposition of ISA for UDD rallies in the post
Songkhran riot period.
8. (C) RTG contacts, including Deputy Secretary General Isra
Sunthornvut, readily admitted in private conversations that
the RTG employed double standards for crowd control. That
said, rally intent is a key factor; at this point, red-shirts
are calling for the current government to fall, yellow shirts
not. Isra told us that while the PAD and the RTG did not see
eye to eye on everything–as evidenced by the fact that the
PAD felt compelled to create its own political vehicle–in
general they shared similar perspectives on many core issues.
JOHN
“
