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06BANGKOK1872 PALACE REITERATES – LEAVE ME OUT OF THIS

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“58390”,”3/28/2006 10:56″,”06BANGKOK1872″,

 

“Embassy Bangkok”,”CONFIDENTIAL”,””,

“VZCZCXRO4024

OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM

DE RUEHBK #1872 0871056

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

O 281056Z MAR 06

FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7509

INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS

RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC

RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

RHFJSCC/COMMARFORPAC”,”C O N F I D E N T I A L

BANGKOK 001872

 

SIPDIS

 

SIPDIS

 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016

TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TH

SUBJECT: PALACE REITERATES – LEAVE ME OUT OF THIS

 

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce reason 1.4 (b) (d)

 

1. (C) SUMMARY: The King\’s Principal Private Secretary, Asa

Sarasin, told the Ambassador that the King would not

intervene to resolve the political impasse. The Palace

believes that the situation can be resolved without the need

for royal intervention, and anticipates that Thaksin will

eventually be forced to step down. Asa thought that it was

conceivable that the Constitutional Court might approve the

seating of a Parliament made up of less than 500 members.

While the Court is viewed as subject to undue influence from

the PM, it would be difficult for it to approve the seating

of a truncated Parliament, since the Court ruled back in 2000

that the Senate could not be seated until all 200 of its

seats were filled. END SUMMARY

 

2. (C) The Ambassador called on Asa Sarasin, the King\’s

Principal Private Secretary, on March 28 to deliver an

advance copy of the controversial biography of the King that

is slated to be published in the United States in May. Asa

discussed the Palace\’s concerns about the repeated calls from

anti-Thaksin demonstrators for the King to intervene to

resolve the current political impasse. Asa said that the

King did not intend to intervene, since that would be a set

back for Thailand\’s democratic development. The Palace

believes that the situation can be resolved without the

King\’s intervention.

 

3. (C) The election on April 2 will result in one of two

outcomes, according to Asa. It appears impossible that all

500 constituencies will produce a legal winner; the

widespread opposition to TRT in the South and a few other

areas means that TRT is unlikely to win the required 20

percent of the vote in these constituencies, where it is the

only candidate. The Constitutional Court will then have to

rule on whether the Assembly can be convened and elect a new

cabinet even though all the seats are not filled. TRT

leaders argue that a truncated Parliament should be permitted

to sit, elect a new government and carry out all the

functions of the Parliament. TRT representatives have said

that they expect the Court to rule in their favor on this

point. If the Court supports TRT, Asa predicts, the

demonstrations will continue unabated. Eventually, in his

assessment, the PM will be forced to concede to the unending

opposition, and step down.

 

4. (C) The other option is that the Constitutional Court

will rule that the Parliament cannot convene until all the

seats are filled. In this case, the caretaker government

will continue in place for a period of time, but it will be a

very clear signal to the PM that he would have to go.

 

5. (C) In either case, Asa said, the situation will be

resolved without the need for royal intervention. It may take

time, since the PM is \”ignoring all the signals.\” But the

Palace prefers this to the option of a premature and

unnecessary interference in politics.

 

6. (C) Comment: Despite predictions of all-out efforts by

TRT to make sure all of its candidates win on election day,

most observers anticipate that perhaps 20 – 50 seats in the

parliament will not be filled due to the 20 percent rule. The

action will then presumably move to the Constitutional Court.

Although the Constitutional Court has a shady reputation

based on previous rulings and interpretations, it will have

to contend with the precedent it set in the Senate elections

in 2000. Then, over 80 races did not result in a certified

winner, due to allegations of fraud and vote buying. The

judges ruled that the 112 Senators who were elected could not

hold a sitting to perform the duties of senators under the

Constitution. The Senate was not seated until several rounds

of by-elections resulted in winners in all 200

constituencies. If the Court makes an opposite ruling in

this case, it is likely to bolster the PAD\’s argument that

Thaksin is systematically undermining the rule of law, and

stimulate further opposition. End comment.

BOYCE

Written by thaicables

July 10, 2011 at 5:39 am

Posted in Confidential, Court

One Response

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  1. […] before the king made a most decisive political intervention, the U.S.  Ambassador Ralph Boyce is, in this Wikileaks cable, telling Washington and embassies around the world that the palace is neutral and wanting to stay […]


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