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06BANGKOK1873 CABINET SECRETARY-GENERAL PREDICTS THAKSIN WILL RESIGN AFTER ELECTIONS

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“58401”,”3/28/2006 11:26″,”06BANGKOK1873″,

 

“Embassy Bangkok”,”CONFIDENTIAL”,””,”VZCZCXRO4052

OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM

DE RUEHBK #1873 0871126

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O 281126Z MAR 06

FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7510

INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS

RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC

RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

RHFJSCC/COMMARFORPAC”,”C O N F I D E N T I A L

BANGKOK 001873

 

SIPDIS

 

SIPDIS

 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016

TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TH

SUBJECT: CABINET SECRETARY-GENERAL PREDICTS THAKSIN WILL

RESIGN AFTER ELECTIONS

 

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce reason 1.4 (b) (d)

 

1. (C) The Ambassador spoke on March 28 with Cabinet

Secretary-General Bowornsak Uwanno. Bowornsak was critical

 

SIPDIS

of the opposition PAD leaders, especially Sondhi Limthongkul

and Chamlong Srimuang, for trying to force the King to

intervene and resolve the political impasse. He complained

that the PAD leaders were trying to induce the PM to use

force to end the demonstrations, and thus provoke a crisis

that would bring down the government. The government,

however, would not resort to force.

 

2. (C) Bowornsak then volunteered that, after the election

on April 2, he expected the PM to seek an audience with the

King and \”ask the King\’s opinion.\” Thaksin would then decide

to step down for a period, during which political reforms

could be undertaken. In fact, Bowornsak said, \”perhaps a

decision has already been made,\” but the PM had to have the

election first, before he would consider stepping down.

\”Things will be all right after the vote,\” Bowornsak assured

the Ambassador.

 

3. (C) The Ambassador raised the question of the extent of

political reform needed. Bowornsak said that while PAD

leaders like Sondhi and Chamlong are apparently advocating

for a new constitution entirely, many in the opposition

believe that only a few changes are needed. The reform

process would not take a long time. The Ambassador asked

about the threat of asset seizure. Wouldn\’t this threat

encourage Thaksin to cling to his position in order to better

protect his fortune? Bowornsak found this argument

unconvincing. The courts would have to first find Thaksin

guilty of a crime before there could be any threat to his

assets, and there was no evidence that Thaksin had committed

a crime.

 

4. (C) Comment: We have heard predictions of this scenario

from a number of other sources: Thaksin wants the

vindication of a big vote for him on Sunday, and would then

be able to step down from a strong position, and plan to

return to politics after things cool down for him. Bowornsak

predicting it is signicant, because he is an intimate Thaksin

advisor. We believe that Bowornsak is not idly speculating

in discussing this scenario. He sounded like he was quite

sure that things would play out as he anticipated, and he is

in a good position to have the inside scoop. However, even

if the PM has mapped out this strategy, he may still change

his mind, or be influenced by others to harden his position

after the election. Nothing will be certain until the

mercurial PM makes his decision public. End comment.

 

BOYCE

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Written by thaicables

July 10, 2011 at 5:41 am

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