thaicables – It's Your Right to know the Truth!

06BANGKOK4416 PALACE APPROVES OCTOBER 15 THAI ELECTION

leave a comment »

“72135″,”7/21/2006 10:40″,

 

“06BANGKOK4416″,”Embassy Bangkok”,

“CONFIDENTIAL”,”06BANGKOK4041|06BANGKOK4277|06BANGKOK4373″,

“VZCZCXRO7416

PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM

DE RUEHBK #4416 2021040

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

P 211040Z JUL 06

FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0378

INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS

RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC”,”C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 004416

 

SIPDIS

 

SIPDIS

 

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MLS, NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW

 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2026

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TH

SUBJECT: PALACE APPROVES OCTOBER 15 THAI ELECTION

 

REF: A. BANGKOK 004373 (SHUFFFLING DECKS IN A

HIGH-STAKES GAME)

B. BANGKOK 004277 (JOCKEYING INTENSIFIES)

C. BANGKOK 004041 (STEAK WITH THAKSIN)

 

Classified By: CDA ALEX A. ARVIZU. REASON 1.4 (B,D)

 

1. (C) In a royal surprise, the King (currently recovering

from surgery) has formally approved the October 15 general

election, setting the stage for a possible breakthrough in

one aspect of the political crisis. While the palace\’s

assent to a new vote was not in itself unexpected, most

observers believed that it would not come until next month,

and would be granted only if the controversial Election

Commission (EC) was replaced. Indeed Thaksin told the

Ambassador on July 7 (ref C) that he expected the EC to

resign, but also believed that the date of the next vote

would slip.

 

2. (C) Other members of the political elite agreed on the

latter point. The ongoing court cases against both Thaksin\’s

Thai Rak Thai (TRT) and the opposition Democrat parties–as

well as wrangling over the EC–would delay a new election.

Even before today\’s announcement, however, conventional

wisdom on this issue had begun to shift. In a possible nod

to the untenability of the current situation (a PM without a

parliament for five months, rising investor wariness, etc.)

various tentacles of TRT have publicly stated this week that

the election really has to happen on October 15. Some

observers now believe that there will be no resolution to

many of the pending court cases (and potential dissolution of

the two main parties) until after the election. It\’s not

clear yet why the palace decided today to release a decree

that won\’t be valid for another month. The palace may be

trying to counter coup fears that have increased with the

rising tension between the military leadership and the

government (refs A,B.) The King seems to be signaling that

the crisis must be resolved at the ballot box and not through

other means.

 

3. (C) We do not know the details of the deal that

facilitated this development (or if there even was one), but

the EC remains the key stumbling block to a new vote. Adding

weight to rumors of a deal involving the EC, the King called

for a real, fair and clean election in a rare statement

following the royal order. If the EC members do resign, it

will take some time (and involve some creative legal

maneuvers) to establish a new EC and prepare for the vote.

But it will be one major and welcome step forward.

ARVIZU

About these ads

Written by thaicables

July 12, 2011 at 5:09 am

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 140 other followers

%d bloggers like this: