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09BANGKOK2902 REDS AND YELLOWS SET TO CONGREGATE (SEPARATELY) THIS WEEKEND

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“234558”,”11/13/2009 11:06″,”09BANGKOK2902″,

“Embassy Bangkok”,”CONFIDENTIAL”,

“09BANGKOK2405|09BANGKOK2746|09BANGKOK2855|

09BANGKOK2875|09BANGKOK2887”,

“VZCZCXRO7091

PP RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM

DE RUEHBK #2902/01 3171106

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

P 131106Z NOV 09

FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8939

INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY

RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 2101

RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 7691

RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 5970

RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 0171

RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 7287

RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY

RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY”,”C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002902

 

SIPDIS

 

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON

 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2019

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TH

SUBJECT: THAILAND: REDS AND YELLOWS SET TO CONGREGATE

(SEPARATELY) THIS WEEKEND

 

REF: A. BANGKOK 2887 (THAKSIN EXTRADTION REJECTED)

B. BANGKOK 2855 (COLOR ME GREEN)

C. BANGKOK 2875 (THAKSIN PUTS HIS FOOT IN HIS MOUTH)

D. BANGKOK 2746 (THAKSIN MOVES PROMISE TURBULENT

NOVEMBER)

E. BANGKOK 2405 (BRAWL NEAR BORDER)

 

BANGKOK 00002902 001.2 OF 002

 

Classified By: POL Counselor George Kent, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D)

 

1. (U) SUMMARY: The upcoming weekend will see red and yellow

political rallies, though on different days and different

parts of the country. On Saturday, November 14, the United

Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), aka

\”red-shirts,\” will hold a fundraising concert in Khao Yai

National Park, two hours outside of Bangkok. On Sunday,

November 15 the yellow-shirted People\’s Alliance for

Democracy (PAD) plans to hold a demonstration in downtown

Bangkok protesting recent moves by fugitive former Prime

Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (REFS A and C). The rally will

be PAD\’s first major public event since its Bangkok airport

sieges ended December 2, 2008; over 10,000 \”yellow-shirt\”

supporters are expected to attend. The PAD shifted the date

of its rally from Saturday to Sunday so that it would not run

concurrently with the red-shirt gathering; the PAD also

shifted locations in Bangkok because the military is running

a practice session for the December 2 King\’s birthday parade.

The RTG announced that it would not invoke the Internal

Security Act (ISA) for either gathering; all indications are

that both rallies will be peaceful affairs.

 

2. (C) COMMENT: This weekend,s twin red and yellow events

both seem poised to unfold without incident, which is welcome

news after a turbulent week; we have used meetings with

national red and yellow leaders in the past two weeks to

underscore the need to stick to peaceful measures as they

express their political views. With the diplomatic spat with

Cambodia over fugitive former PM Thaksin\’s visit dominating

headlines and PM Abhisit in Singapore for the APEC and

US-ASEAN Leaders\’ Meetings, the rallies have not attracted as

much attention as they otherwise might have. End Summary and

Comment

 

REDS HEAD TO THE HILLS, FOR ONE DAY, EYE ON LATE NOV.

———————————— —————-

 

3. (C) The UDD have directed supporters to converge on Khao

Yai National Park on November 14. Located two hours from

Bangkok in Nakhon Ratchasima Province, Khao Yai is the

gateway to Thaksin\’s traditional stronghold in the northeast.

Red-shirt leader Vira Musikapong told us the gathering would

be a concert and fund-raiser with an eye on bringing in

funding for the next big UDD protest (note: in early November

call-ins to red rallies, Thaksin urged supporters to hold

more sustained rallies in greater numbers. See ref D).

 

4. (C) When Vira suggested to us that next full fledged

red-shirt rally was likely to begin November 28 or 29 and

span three-five days, we asked how such a prolonged rally

would affect the King\’s birthday celebration, which begins

December 2 with the annual parade in which the military

renews its oath of allegiance to King Bhumibol, in the same

public space that red-shirts usually use for Bangkok rallies.

Vira conceded the UDD was aware of the potential conflict,

impishly acknowledged some red-shirts would relish the

opportunity to \”bash\” the military, but said leaders would

hold a meeting on November 20 to determine the best strategy

to reconcile UDD plans with the King,s birthday. We urged

Vira to ensure that the red-shirts stick to peaceful means to

express their opposition to the government and avoid the

escalation of street action which culminated in the red riots

of April in Pattaya and Bangkok.

 

PAD TO GATHER FOR FIRST TIME IN ALMOST A YEAR

———————————————

 

5. (C) The PAD on November 10 announced it would gather

supporters on Sunday, November 15 for the group\’s first

national rally since December 2008; the national PAD

leadership did not sanction the Preah Vihear border adventure

 

BANGKOK 00002902 002.2 OF 002

 

on September 19 (REF A). PAD coordinator and Secretary

General of the New Politics Party Suriyasai Katasila publicly

stated the purpose of the rally to be held at Sanam Luang

would be to protest Thaksin and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun

Sen (REFS B, C). The Manager newspaper quoted Suriyasai

saying that 100,000 people would attend the gathering;

privately, however, he told us November 11 that he expected

between 30,000 and 50,000 people would show up. (note: the

police are predicting 10,000).

 

6. (C) The PAD movement is in transition to forming a new

political party to promote its core ideas within the formal

parliamentary system, as Suriyasai detailed to us November 4

(ref B). At the time, Suriyasai delineated the focus of the

two vehicles in this way: the PAD would retain a focus on

countering Thaksin\’s influence, while the New Politics Party

would focus on reforming the political system and increasing

transparency from within (note: there is currently complete

overlap between the leadership of the PAD and the NPP).

 

ISA: DOUBLE STANDARDS, OR DIFFERING INTENT?

——————————————-

 

7. (U) Deputy Prime Minister for security Suthep Thuagsuban

on November 12 announced that the ISA would not be invoked

for the PAD rally, which is not directed against the Thai

government but against Thaksin and Hun Sen. Likewise there

were no indications that the government planned to have

security forces in any state of visible readiness for the PAD

demonstration. Red-shirt netizens lit up the Internet in

both Thai and English after hearing the news, accusing the

RTG of employing a double-standard, given the seemingly

automatic imposition of ISA for UDD rallies in the post

Songkhran riot period.

 

8. (C) RTG contacts, including Deputy Secretary General Isra

Sunthornvut, readily admitted in private conversations that

the RTG employed double standards for crowd control. That

said, rally intent is a key factor; at this point, red-shirts

are calling for the current government to fall, yellow shirts

not. Isra told us that while the PAD and the RTG did not see

eye to eye on everything–as evidenced by the fact that the

PAD felt compelled to create its own political vehicle–in

general they shared similar perspectives on many core issues.

JOHN

Written by thaicables

July 22, 2011 at 9:26 am

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